Posts Tagged ‘Mortgage Rate Quotes’

The real story: I die. I am resuscitated. How much longer?

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

I didn’t do the 8K this weekend. I didn’t do the 8K because no one, not Cheryl, or Linda or myself believed I would make the finish line. Believed that I was in sufficient condition to finish the race, and believed it was more than a 50% certainly I would be in hospital. So I worked, as I did for the last several nights, past 5:00 a.m. doing things like postcards or getting the blog finished (20 pictures, the last one). Instead of being honest, I gave you the posts of what I thought what you wanted.I am afraid that people will leave, because no one, not even Linda or Cheryl can talk about the things that are happening right now. One of the recent days, Saturday I think, I woke too weak to speak, or move my head, or use my arms. I have to be carried into my wheelchair, then pushed to the chair in study and carried into that chair. What does that mean? It means that until I take a lot of pain medication, quadruple what I had a few weeks ago, I can’t use my hands or arms, that takes the morning. I can’t hold my head up and I pass out, and come back, then pass out again. The first Lesbian Sleepover had those conversations, but it also had more seizures, more grand mals in one night than I have had in the rest of the week combined.And then, I think yesterday, I died. Or to be exact, I stopped breathing on my own for a very long time. Four minutes is enough for permanent damage. I stopped breathing for about twenty minutes. During this, my heart, very weak stopped and started. Linda, did mouth to mouth while I was unconscious, until Cheryl found the Ambi-bag. The Ambi-bag is for EMT’s to use until a person can be ventilated (a tube put down their throat and they put on a ventilator). I have had short periods of stopped breathing, I had experienced them earlier that day. Linda sleeps besides me, and listens as I sleep, waking as I stop breathing, and waiting until a time passes or I start breathing again. Many times, there is pain, or pressure, or a desire to breathe, but I just don’t have the strength to breathe. This time, I would be brought to a haze of semi-consciousness, but all I felt was total exhaustion. I had no need to breathe: I only wanted to rest. I had no will, no fire, no fight, I couldn’t do it anymore. I couldn’t speak because I had no control over my diaphragm but at one point, with the air pumped into me, I whispered to Cheryl, “Go” meaning, ‘let me go.’ (Picture is called ‘Wreath’)They brought me back somehow, and I probably tried to continue what I was doing. Later I asked Linda, “When are we going to talk about it?” She said we needed to go to bed right then.My heart is failing, right now. Every beat, every minute, it is weak and does not beat consistently, and often simply just flutters, doing nothing. Without the heart masking pills, I have unimaginable pain (I would scream and scream, but without my heart I can’t breath). I think of the woman in the book in To Kill a Mockingbird, who wanted to die without morphine addiction. Because it is all I can do to hold on from when I ask Linda for another pill and when it starts to work. Yesterday, due to a system failure, my lungs started to close off, an inflammation of some kind. We had an old inhaler of Linda’s and I was able to breathe again.Why don’t I go to a hospital, where they would put a tube down my throat and keep me alive? Because in all honestly, I don’t know what to do. It turns out there is quite a difference between being terminal and saying, “Well, based on my rate of dropping, I don’t know how many months I have left.” A big difference between that and saying, as I said, when I was placed into bed, my body arranged, my bed inclined for breathing in hopes of limited recovery, “Tell Cheryl I’m sorry, tell them I’m sorry.” I just didn’t have the strength to go on anymore. I felt, that by dying, by giving up, I was failing all my friends and people who read here. You are the “them” I was talking about.Cheryl and Linda had talked after they had gotten me back breathing. Linda was scared but she didn’t know if she, if they had done the right thing. Cheryl didn’t either. To see me every day in such pain, and to keep bringing me back, again and again. This time it wasn’t a bit of aid; if they had not acted in a steady and prolonged fashion to keep my lungs filling with oxygen, I would be dead; my face wouldn’t have been pale, it would have turned a peculiar shade of grey.So, the exact particulars of a Do Not Resuscitate aren’t abstract anymore are they?What is this? This is the picture of the world without Elizabeth McClung. Because that is all that will remain, an empty room.I am not ready for this, dying, even the requiring, many times, close and continuous help, and that includes 24 hour assistance. I am not ready, but it is here.It has been quite the week.I want you to know that when Cheryl had to go on Sunday she left with every postcard request and every other postcard selected this week done. I wrote every single one. I selected every single one. Every package for this week was done. I have hoed to the end of the row; I kept the promises I made. I remember at one point, I think I was lying in Cheryl’s arms, and I tried to explain. “How can I not keep working?”I think she said that I was literally killing myself. We were both crying“In an age where everyone is trying to trick people to give their personal information.” I said, tears rolling down my cheeks, “they GAVE me their personal information. They took a chance. They trusted me. How can I break that trust?”I mean I always knew that this wasn’t a ship I was getting off of. That when the time came for someone to make sure everyone was safe, or someone had to stay behind, to make sure that no one else would come to harm, that would be me. It is why I was born: the sacrifice. But if you call, across the distance, and I hear you, I will come, in some way, as much as I can I will be there for you. Cheryl had been worried earlier this week about my not being here when she arrived (yeah, sorry about the hiding of my physical, pain levels and mental state). I told her, “Say ‘I need you.’”She did.Say, “I need you to know you will be there until I come.”She did.I said, “Now, I’ll be here.” Everyone else first. That’s the rule. Only now I am locked in a room where I don’t have those choices anymore. The room is a metaphor for my body. I can only wait. In fact, I don’t know how many choices I have at all. And maybe, very soon, I will be in hospital for a longish time.I promised Linda that I would go to bed early, I would sleep more, and we would leave this apartment. She can’t remember when I was last able to leave alone. We would go to the ocean side path, me wrapped in my blanket, and she could push and we would remember, what used to be. That this is where I trained for the commonwealth, me running with her keeping pace on her bike, the same trails where we jogged together after we moved back. We will go out, and remember.Then we will come back, and soon, we will talk about how much more I can take. How much more I want to take. It will be a intimate but difficult conversation. She feels that she is keeping me here just for her. That to see me waking in agony, begging to be let go, to have them stop reviving me is her being selfish. I don’t know how to explain that the flashes of anger and frustration come from pain, or that I look in front of me for tomorrow, or the day after, or next week and I don’t see, I don’t FEEL anything. If it were not for the promises made to S. and C. A. and a few others, I would not come back. But that is then, my fourth seizure, or when I can only drool and lose consciousness.Now I look at my books and I don’t care anymore if they are sold, in fact, I don’t even really see them or anything as mine anymore. But still, I sit here, with every breath a struggle and my heart stopping and starting, and erratic close to a majority of the beats, and I go on. I have no future. I will take no vacation. I will have no family dinner. I will never have a job. I won’t take an education course. I don’t have the capacity anymore to write that book. What I know waking, and sleeping, and being listened to on the monitor so when I wake, I can be helped up, when I can’t even talk or use my arms.And still I go on. Why?I guess because right now, I feel that on some days, I feel I can make a difference. Many days, sometimes many days in a row, it seems that I can’t. It seems that nothing I do, the cards, or gifts, or little letters or the pictures for the posts or the posts on the blog make a difference. And then, I get frustrated and sad, and truthfully, I look forward now to the time when I am free. When my body will rest here, but I will be gone. I hope it is as peaceful as it sounds.I am losing function so quickly now that it is hard to keep up. I am something like a mix of Flowers for Algernon and Johnny Got his Gun. I am a collection of what people read as horror films or stories. Take Stephen King: the book Thinner is about a person cursed to become thinner until they die. Yeah, that’s life, scary I guess but life. What about Misery? About a person who can’t use their thumbs, whose feet are smashed and they have to use a wheelchair, how they are chained inside. Yeah, my life and that are not very different are they? A “healthy man reduced to that by a maniac, what sickening horror.” So who was the maniac who did this to me? No one. But people find it terrifying all the same. I hope you don’t pull away because of your own fears, or your own sadness that I am, not in a theoretical way, but in a very quick and very literal way dying. In fact, I have already died a few times and come back. Because right now, you are the ones who are keeping me here.You may not like it but I consider my desire which helps me continue, perhaps part obligation, perhaps part vanity but I want to live because you want me to live. And if means I am in constant pain, and with constant care, and unable to talk; or to lie in bed 50% of my time and 25% of the time be in so much agony I can’t function to the point of holding a toothbrush but I use the other 25% to communicate with you, in postcards, in emails, in blog posts, then that is enough. I live. Maybe I will find some other motivation. But for now, on the bad days, in those bad minutes and hours, it is you.I am tentatively scheduled to go to Seattle in January. That is a long time away. People will leave to be with the ones they love. I will have to fight alone. I don’t know how to do it in this body.Some people, many people, some readers think I will go to hell because I love Linda. I think that is supposed to scare me or something. If there is a hell and I am sent there, then I will be free at last, and I will find a way to protect those there. Lesbians in hell, my ass. I spend a great deal of time and was very fortunate to finally find this picture (which I had seen another person own). This is me. I have walked in the fire. Christians aren’t very good on their mythology, because there is something else about the Sacrifice, which is the Eternal Warrior. Hell doesn’t scare me. Pain and the looks on Linda and Cheryl’s face scare me. Feeling nothing, not even the desire to fight scares me. Being free again with a sword does not scare me. The people who think when I die I am not going to come back for them, should be scared of me.Here is another picture I picked up, of the Valkyries (which was actually the name of my competition sword, Val). Swooping in the sky, weapon in hand. Not the worse life. Right now I live the life of Loki, chained, who has the acid dripping constantly on him, with his wife catching as much as she can in a cup, but when she empties the cup, it drips on him and his screams and writhing shake the world in earthquakes.So that’s how things are. And if you know how to get from here to January, please help me. In fact, that’s what I want to say, help me. I think, even with a memory of just a day, even with this weak body, even with the pain, that this life is pretty good. I think there are good people out there. And I think I can remind a few people, maybe more than a few that change, and taking risks and caring are possible. They aren’t pain free, and sometimes you will be hurt, but they ARE possible.When I go, I want to go fighting. I want my body to be so ravaged that they use it for the next 100 years as an example of what is possible. I never got to do the Ironman/Ironwoman Triathlon in Hawaii. This is my Ironman/Ironwoman. I knew a woman who did it three times, and she used to run mountains for just the running section as training. I like that image, not climbing, but RUNNING up mountains. Don’t let me just open my hand and let go.Even as I type that I know soon I will not be able to type, and I can now use my hands because I have two heart meds and most of my pain meds in me. The pain, the exhaustion of the body system is beyond imagination. Think of a marathoner. Then think of them asked (forced!) to do ANOTHER marathon after the first one, without stopping. And see them staggering to the finish. Now, THAT person is responsible for every beat of my heart; if they lose consciousness, I lose consciousness, if they weave for a second or two, my heart stops for a second or two, if they don’t have perfect pressure every time, I can’t breathe.That is where I am. It isn’t who I am. Who am I is going to be dead, soon. And I would like to know how to delay that, and I would like to fight. I just don’t know how.I did ask Linda to find me a 10K in december….just in case.

Bury the Dead

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

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The last of the corporal works of mercy - the deeds of practical kindness done for the physicality - the bodies - of others is to “bury the dead.” Mitt Romney, in a New York Times Op-Ed piece, suggests that this may be the right approach to the U.S. auto industry - a managed bankruptcy that brings the old way of doing things to an end.  Whether any new way could rise from the ashes for these businesses, neither he nor I can guess.  In fact, Romney says that letting the embers die is actually the only hope for Detroit: Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.I was a Michigander through the 1980s and most of the 90s. Every few years, the news was flooded with the make-or-break negotiations between labor unions and car companies. In general, I’m a supporter of unions: without banding together, the push to cut costs can create unsafe working conditions and undercuts wages. But a union can lose sight of its role in the larger society: the company’s business pays not only the union workers but keeps the economy of the area afloat. The sale of the product at a competitive rate is the only way for the business to survive. Every cycle of negotiations, the businesses trotted out more and more evidence that the changed nature of the work - more mechanization, fewer workers - made the pension and benefit provisions of old contracts detrimental to the health of the company - Romney says they add about $2000 more to the cost of a US-union made car than non-union cars.  The UAW held onto everything it could for its workers.  Now there’s not much company left. But as much of the problem lies with the management who, for decades, flew in the face of reality and sales evidence to produce more and more gas guzzlers.  Every time the CAFE standards were up for review, they went to Washington to beg and plead that they not be changed, and to roll back what few provisions were voted in the last time.  They claimed they could not meet standards even as Toyotas and Hondas rolled off the ships with mileage better than the proposed standards - and began to take a larger and larger share of the market.  They hung onto every low MPG car they possibly could to wring the last ounce of profit from that model.  Now there’s not much company left.  Mitt Romney has better credentials for speaking about the auto industry than most - a native of Michigan, son of the man who turned around AMC and then became governor.  He sees the necessity, in the national interest, of having a living auto industry.  But he doesn’t think we will get there by keeping the existing system on life support.The American auto industry is vital to our national interest as an employer and as a hub for manufacturing. A managed bankruptcy may be the only path to the fundamental restructuring the industry needs. It would permit the companies to shed excess labor, pension and real estate costs. The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.In a managed bankruptcy, the federal government would propel newly competitive and viable automakers, rather than seal their fate with a bailout check.Burying the dead is an act of mercy because is shows respect to what was, but - in Christian theology - it is also the recognition that life is much more than the body.  In our economic world, too, we have to be ready and able to bury the dead - and to support all that is filled with life and health in our economy.  I don’t think it’s entirely an accident that Mitt Romney tells the story of the auto industry around the plot line of the Paschal mystery.

Let’s Shed Some Light on Clean Energy Options

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

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Although solar cells are technologically exciting, there’s another way to convert sunlight into energy. Stirling generators can convert heat energy into electricity without the use of toxic chemicals.
Essentially, all you need are large mirrors, a Stirling engine, a little bit of reusable hydrogen gas, some water to wash the mirrors, engine oil and a lot of land. There are several companies around the world that have worked hard to take advantage of this technology.
Stirling Energy Systems, headquartered in Phoenix, is building two large solar plants in California, for example. The above picture is what these solar generators look like.
Just one of these engines can produce enough energy – about 55,000 KWh of electricity – to power about a dozen homes each year. The efficiency of these machines is impressive, reaching a conversion rate of 31.25 percent, reports Popular Mechanics.
But as I wrote earlier this month, there always, always seems to be a downside to energy production. As you can see from this picture, it takes a LOT of solar engines to make enough electricity to feed our energy needs. While one looks cool, lots of them are kind of unattractive.
This solar farm is in a fairly desolate spot in the Mohave Desert where the general population is not likely to complain about aesthetics. But the solar project, which has been winning clean energy awards, has a new problem: a California judge “struck down plans to build a high power transmission line (through a national park,) effectively dooming the massive solar initiatives set to be built in the desert,” reports Daily Tech.
The problem? The 150-foot transmission lines needed to bring the electricity mostly to San Diego, would have cut through Anza-Borrego State Park, which contains many protected species. The environmental impact report is 11,000-pages long.
Not surprisingly, appeals are planned. My guess is a solution will be eventually found; huge power plants of any sort rarely stay idle for long, especially in a world where petroleum supplies are dwindling.
Other, even larger solar farms are in development. The world’s largest, which is being developed by Cleantech America Inc., is expected to open in Spring of 2009 in Mendota, California.
Personally, I’m enamored by Stirling generating technology. On paper, it is clean and efficient compared to toxic chemical-dependent solar cells.
The problem isn’t with the technology itself, but rather the American Way of doing things. For efficiency’s sake, everything in this country is done on a massive scale, which often damages the environment while putting all our eggs in one or two massive baskets.
I recall an article in Scientific American that mentions there is enough available, non-environmentally sensitive land in the Southwest to power much of the nation. But wherever these farms are built, transmission lines need to be built. Big, ugly ones right through sensitive habitats and beautiful landscapes.
There is an alternative: homegrown renewable power. Much like the idea of growing food locally, why not produce energy locally to minimize damage to our environment?
The benefits are pretty obvious: using rooftops and parking lots for wind and solar generation means less land is torn up for energy production and transmission. Less energy is wasted en route from power source to power tool. Money that would have been spent on transmission lines could be spent on improving rooftops and other urban areas where homegrown energy would be installed.
We can even use the necessary physical improvements to beautify our cities. Chicago is the leader in rooftop gardens. And a Japanese consortium has made solar cells that look like leaves, reports Engadget.
While I’ve long wondered if decentralized power generation was feasible, The New Rules Project recently released a report demonstrating the possibilities. The idea: windy cities can install windmills, sunny cities can install solar cells not only on rooftops, but also on parking lot canopies and even on building facades. (Even glass windows can be used to produce electricity.)
The potential is clear – most states can be energy independent by relying on their homegrown, renewable resources. At least twenty-one could satisfy 100 percent of their electricity needs from in-state renewable energy.
Don’t get me wrong, developing localized energy is anything but easy. It would require a massive investment in cities and homes. (Better to spend those trillions on energy than moronic, self-serving financial firms.)
Huge tax breaks would be needed to persuade homeowners and businesses to install solar cells or windmills on their roofs. Not to mention it’s a lot messier than just building big wind and solar facilities on empty land.
While solar cells might be more appropriate for our house, Stirling motors might work well on our school roof. If you live in Iowa, a few attractively designed wind generators might do the trick.
States with abundant empty land will still build large generating plants, of course. It’s good for those state’s economies and its wise to have multiple sources of energy, anyway.
All I’m saying is let’s just be sensible enough to not tear up all of America’s land for energy production.

The Unofficial Indicators of the Housing Market

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

By the time official housing numbers come out, they’re horribly dated. I like to look at numbers that are more current, even if less pristine, statistically.
One of my favorite places is the Countrywide REOs page. These are the properties that Countrywide is trying to sell after regaining a property in foreclosure.
When I first started watching this site a few years ago, California hovered in the 3,000+ range. A couple weeks ago, California REOs were in the low 5,000s. Today, Countrywide is trying to unload more than 6,000 foreclosed properties.
Another unofficial guide gives a quick count of distressed homes for sale. Los Angeles County, for example, was hovering in the 90,000s until recently. Today, they’re sitting at 147,000, according to HUDhouses. Maricopa County, which covers most of the Phoenix area, moved from the mid-40,000 range to about 64,000.
Meanwhile, the uber optimists at the National Association of Realtors, are happy to see increasing numbers of sales due to declining prices, reports Reuters. Distressed home sales made up about 35 to 40 percent of the market, according to the NAR.
They also reported that home values fell in 120 of 152 metropolitan areas for an average price drop of 9 percent from a year ago.
While THEY may be taking HAPPY PILLS at the NAR, I wonder if responsible homeowners feel the same way. Each foreclosed home that sells, means a lower comp for their neighbors.
As unemployment increases, those saddled with upside-down mortgages become more inclined to walk away, which may contribute to still more homes hitting the market. Could an entirely new flood of abandoned homes be headed to market?
pIn fact, I’ve been wanting to drive over to one of Arizona’s exurbs to see just how bad it is – but it really IS too far away. I mean, look how many homes are for sale on this Trulia map in just one neighborhood. Of the 123 homes for sale, 90 are foreclosures.
pActually, the NAR does have a point, though. For $109,000, you can pick up the above pictured 4-bedroom newish-looking home in Buckeye, which is waaaaaay out to the west side of Phoenix.
Fannie Mae lists 113 properties in Buckeye. For $149,000, you can get a 2,590-square-foot mansion like this one.
Even my current neighborhood is not immune, though it is much more stable for now. Here are some unofficial numbers that I just discovered on Trulia: 288 new real estate listings in Scottsdale over the past 7 days. Um, that would translate to a 14,976 annual rate. (unofficially, of course.)
As I watch in sadness at the suffering of families losing their jobs and homes – and knowing that we’re pretty darned precarious ourselves – my gut instinct says the worst is yet to come. We may actually see those homes over 2,000 square feet in Buckeye drop into the 5-figure range.
Sooner or later, the NAR WILL be right, and bargains will dominate the market.
That’s what my unofficial gut feeling tells me.

An Erotetic Approach To Software Architectural Decisions

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

Designing and implementing software systems is really a challenge of repeatedly asking ‘what is the best way to do X’ and finding the answer. Actually doing each X is normally relatively straight forward with modern development tools. Here I present a simple, flexible, question based (erotetic) model to help guide the decision process.
The approach is based on the three domains of consideration I have discussed in the past. An optimal design will be optimal in each domain. To choose between to possible implementation approaches we follow a set of questions:
Core decision questions:
How well does each approach perform in each domain?
Is one domain particularly important to this project? For example, a quick single use project will put a greater importance on Timeliness whilst a ATM user interface will find Accuracy/Appropriateness to be of the greatest importance.
Do the two previous questions make it clear which implementation to go for?
If not - choose Longevity/Re-Usability.
To assess how well an approach performs in a particular domain we can ask the following questions:
Domain specific questions:
Accuracy/Appropriateness:
Will the approach do what the software users need it to do?
Will the approach do what we expect it to do?
Will the approach yield a reliable and consistent implementation?
Productivity:
Does the approach increase the rate at which team members can produce code to fulfil requirements?
Does the approach increase the rate at which whole teams can produce code to fulfil requirements?
Does the approach the rate at which systems of teams can produce software systems to fulfil requirements?
Longevity/Re-usability:
How long can the implementation be used considering that needs change and requirements always get added to?
Can we re-use all or parts of the implementation for other software systems to avoid ‘re-inventing the wheel’?
How much can we learn from using this implementation which may be of use for other development activities?
I do not think this approach is complete or fully rounded yet. However, I do believe this is an interesting starting point and welcome any and all feedback/ideas.
- AJ

Stop Diving for Pearls and Start Farming Oysters!

星期四, 01月 8th, 2009

John Counsel of The Profit Clinic shared this recently at The Home Based Business Forums. Great stuff!!! ============ Stop Diving for Pearls and Start Farming Oysters! Pearls are the result of a simple process: something hard and sharp gets inside an oyster’s shell and irritates it. If the oyster can’t spit it out, it coats it with a hardy, shiny substance, called nacre, until it’s round and smooth and no longer painful. Problem solved!Two kinds of people open oysters looking for pearls. They both want the same result, but they go about it in very different ways, for very different reasons. And they get very different results.The port of Broome, in north western Australia, has been the pearling capital of the world for more than a century. But, since World War II, Broome’s vast fleet of pearling luggers, from which pearl divers once risked their lives (from drowning, paralysis, or being eaten alive by sharks and salt-water crocodiles), has vanished to make way for the world’s largest pearl farms.Pearl divers opened oysters from the seabed once only, hoping to find pearls — yet their chances of finding any were less than 1 in 50,000. That’s the dismal statistic from Paspaley Pearls of Broome, the world’s largest producer of cultured pearls.Pearl farmers take no risks at all. But they open each oyster TWICE. The first time is to plant an irritant and start a process — a relationship — that, with a little time and patience, will deliver them a perfect pearl of the desired size, shape and quality — when they open the oyster for the SECOND time. The actual pearl-making process is identical for both cultured pearls and “natural” pearls — the only difference is that one is the result of a random process and involves very high risk for very little result. The other is the result of a safe and controlled process, with predictable, very high results. And if a pearl farmer DOES happen to find a pearl the FIRST time they open an oyster, it’s a BONUS!Can you see how pearling is a lot like prospecting in network marketing?Most of us are pearl divers. We squander our time and money desperately looking for people to join us. We rarely find them and, like the pearl divers of the past, we tend to die prematurely… or, at least, our enthusiasm for network marketing dies quickly, the victim of drowning in despair, paralyzed by mounting debt and fear, or eaten alive by ruthless predators of all shapes and sizes — including some predatory MLM companies and upline “leaders”!The smart network marketer is a pearl farmer who understands the importance of opening an oyster, the first time, with no expectation of finding a pearl, but to plant the right irritant, then let the oyster do its work. If we DO find a pearl the first time — someone who’s genuinely ready to join us right now, with all the right insights, attitudes and know-how — it’s a BONUS!Your success rate shouldn’t be measured by the results you get the FIRST time you open an oyster/prospect. Instead, learn to measure YOUR success by how many of those oysters eventually transform your “irritants” into genuine pearls. I discovered, after more than five years, that my sponsoring success rate was actually 100%. But it took some people five years to reach the decision to join me.How long that takes is entirely up to the individual oyster/prospect… not YOU!Fruit, vegetable and grain farmers aren’t judged by how many crops they plant — only by how much produce they eventually reap. What’s so different about network marketing?

Raju’s confession

星期三, 01月 7th, 2009

To the Board of DirectorsSatyam Computer Services Ltd.From B. Ramalinga Raju,Chairman, Satyam Computer Services Ltd.January 7, 2009Dear Board Members,It is with deep regret, and tremendous burden than I am carrying on my conscience, that I would like to bring the following facts to your notice:1. The Balance Sheet carries as of September 30, 2008a. Inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balances of Rs. 5,040 crore (as against Rs. 5361 crore reflected in the books)b. An accrued interest of Rs. 376 crore which is non-existentc. An understated liability of Rs. 1, 230 crore on account of funds arranged by med. An over stated debtors position of Rs. 490 crore (as against Rs. 2,651 reflected in the books)2. For the September quarter (Q2) we reported a revenue of Rs. 2,700 crore and an operating margin of Rs. 649 crore (24% of revenues) as against the actual revenues of Rs. 2,112 core and an actual operating margin of Rs. 61 crore (3% of revenues). This has resulted in artificial cash and bank balances going up by Rs. 588 crore in Q2 alone.The gap in the Balance Sheet has arisen purely on account of inflated profits over a period of last several years (limited only to Satyam standalone, books of subsidiaries reflecting true performance). What started as a marginal gap between actual operating profit and the one reflected in the books of accounts continued to grow over the years. It has attained unmanageable proportions as the size of company operations grew significantly (annualized revenue run rate of Rs. 11, 276 crore in the September quarter, 2008 and official reserves of Rs. 8, 392 crore). The differential in the real profits and the one reflected in the books was further accentuated by the fact that the company had to carry additional resources and assets to justify higher level of operations—thereby significantly increasing the costs.Every attempt made to eliminate the gap failed. As the promoters held a small percentage of equity, the concern was that poor performance would result in a take-over, thereby exposing the gap. It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten.The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones. Maytas’ investors were convinced that this is a good divestment opportunity and a strategic fit. Once Satyam’s problem was solved, it was hoped that Maytas’ payments can be delayed. But that was not to be. What followed in the last several days is common knowledge.I would like the board to know: 1. That neither myself, nor the Managing Director (including our spouses) sold any shares in the last eight years — excepting for a small proportion declared and sold for philanthropic purposes.2. That in the last two years a net amount of Rs. 1,230 crore was arranged to Satyam (not reflected in the books of Satyam) to keep the operations going by resorting to pledging all the promoter shares and raising funds from known sources by giving all kinds of assurances (Statement enclosed, only to the members of the board). Significant dividend payments, acquisitions, capital expenditure to provide for growth did not help matters. Every attempt was made to keep the wheel moving and to ensure prompt payment of salaries to the associates. The last straw was the selling of most of the pledged share by the lenders on account of margin triggers.3. That neither me, nor the Managing Director took even one rupee/dollar from the company and have not benefitted in financial terms on account of the inflated results.4. None of the board members, past or present, had any knowledge of the situation in which the company is placed. Even business leaders and senior executives in the company, such as, Ram Mynampati, Subu D, T.R. Anand, Keshab Panda, Virender Agarwal, A.S. Murthy, Hari T, SV Krishnan, Vijay Prasad, Manish Mehta, Murali V, Sriram Papani, Kiran Kavale, Joe Lagioia, Ravindra Penumetsa, Jayaraman and Prabhakar Gupta are unaware of the real situation as against the books of accounts. None of my or Managing Director’s immediate or extended family members has any idea about these issues.Having put these facts before you, I leave it to the wisdom of the board to take the matters forward. However, I am also taking the liberty to recommend the following steps:1. A Task Force has been formed in the last few days to address the situation arising out of the failed Maytas acquisition attempt. This consists of some of the most accomplished leaders of Satyam: Subu D, T.R. Anand, Keshab Panda and Virender Agarwal, representing business functions, and A.S. Murthy, Hari T and Murali V representing support functions. I suggest that Ram Mynampati be made the Chairman of this Task Force to immediately address some of the operational matters on hand. Ram can also act as an interim CEO reporting to the board.2. Merrill Lynch can be entrusted with the task of quickly exploring some Merger opportunities.3. You may have a ‘restatement of accounts’ prepared by the auditors in light of the facts that I have placed before you.I have promoted and have been associated with Satyam for well over twenty years now. I have seen it grow from few people to 53,000 people, with 185 Fortune 500 companies as customers and operations in 66 countries. Satyam has established an excellent leadership and competency base at all levels. I sincerely apologize to all Satyamites and stakeholders, who have made Satyam a special organization, for the current situation. I am confident they will stand by the company in this hour of crisis.In light of the above, I fervently appeal to the board to hold together to take some important steps. Mr. T.R. Prasad is well placed to mobilize support from the government at this crucial time. With the hope that members of the Task Force and the financial advisor, Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America) will stand by the company at this crucial hour, I am marking copies of this statement to them as well.Under the circumstances, I am tendering my resignation as the chairman of Satyam and shall continue in this position only till such time the current board is expanded. My continuance is just to ensure enhancement of the board over the next several days or as early as possible.I am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and face consequences thereof. (B. Ramalinga Raju)Copies marked to:1. Chairman SEBI2. Stock Exchanges

Axis bank to split top post after chairman, CEO Nayak retires

星期三, 01月 7th, 2009

Mumbai: India’s third largest private company by assets, Axis Bank Ltd, is set to start the process of identifying executives to take over the top two positions in the bank, with the term of P.J. Nayak, its current chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) ending on 31 July.Following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) directive, the bank will have to split the post of chairman and chief executive officer. It isn’t known if the bank will ask Nayak to continue as non-executive chairman or indeed, whether he will accept such a request.Long run: Chairman and CEO of Axis Bank P.J. Nayak. In May 2007, the bank board passed a resolution recommending Nayak, then chairman and MD, for the post of the bank’s executive chairman for two years. Ashesh Shah /MintMany old private banks, including Federal Bank Ltd, South Indian Bank Ltd, Karnataka Bank Ltd, Karur Vysya Bank Ltd, City Union Bank Ltd and Ratnakar Bank Ltd, recently split the top post at the regulator’s insistence.ICICI Bank Ltd, India’s largest private sector lender, identified the successor of its current CEO and managing director K.V. Kamath in December, five months before he retires. The bank’s joint managing director and chief financial officer Chanda Kochhar will replace Kamath in May. Kamath will be the bank’s non-executive chairman, replacing N. Vaghul.Among old private banks, Federal Bank split the post of chairman and CEO in November after RBI refused to renew the tenure of M. Venugopalan. According to a director on the board of Federal Bank, RBI has cleared the appointment of A.M. Salim as the bank’s chairman and Venugopalan will continue as the managing director and CEO.Ananthakrishna (he uses only one name), chairman of Karnataka Bank, told Mint: “We have sent a proposal to RBI, seeking its permission to let me continue as a non-executive chairman of the bank.” The regulator is expected to give its nod to one of the three senior executives of the bank as its CEO. Currently, Ananthakrishna enjoys executive powers. Karur Vysya Bank has appointed Athi S. Janarthanan as its chairman and P.T. Kuppuswamy, the former chairman and CEO, has been named managing director and CEO.South Indian Bank too has also split the top post by appointing G.A. Shenia as non-executive chairman while V.A. Joseph will be managing director and CEO. City Union Bank Ltd and Ratnakar Bank Ltd are also willing to split the top post. “I am aware of the issue and we will have to split the post,” said an Axis Bank director who spoke on the condition of anonymity.An executive at the bank said the senior-most executive director could be considered for the post of managing director and CEO. “The board is meeting on 9 January to announce its quarterly results. The succession issue is not on the agenda as of now,” said another director who did not wish to be identified.Currently, the bank has four executive directors—M.M. Agarwal, V.K. Ramani, S.K. Chakrabarti and Hemant Kaul. Agarwal is the senior-most among them.Nayak declined comment on the issue. R.H. Patil, director and member of the remuneration and nomination committee also declined comment.In May 2007, the board of Axis Bank passed a resolution recommending its then chairman and managing director Nayak for the post of the bank’s executive chairman for a term of two years starting 1 August. Had the board not decided to make him executive chairman, Nayak would have stuck to his decision to quit because RBI was against the same individual holding the posts of chairman and managing director.India’s central bank wanted to split the post of chairman and managing director, in accordance with the recommendation of a panel that was set up in 2002 under the chairmanship of former Hindustan Unilever Ltd chairman A.S. Ganguly. The panel was in favour of splitting the top post in all large banks for the sake of better corporate governance.However, RBI later relented and allowed Nayak to continue to hold the position.Between 2000, when Nayak took over at the bank, and now, UTI Bank’s net profit has shown a compound annual growth rate of at least 40%. Its deposits, advances and total assets too have grown by around 35%.Nayak’s initiation into the Indian financial sector was in 1996 in the role of an executive trustee of the Unit Trust of India (UTI), the country’s largest mutual fund until recently, after a stint at the department of economic affairs, ministry of finance, where he was joint secretary, in charge of the capital markets division.The administrator of the specified undertaking of UTI, the promoter of Axis Bank, will have a major say in the appointment of new CEO.

RIL sitting on ‘promising’ gas and oil reserves

星期三, 01月 7th, 2009

Mumbai: Even as it fights a legal battle over its natural gas fields in the Krishna- Godavari (KG) basin, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s most valuable company, could be sitting on a treasure trove of natural gas and oil reserves in four other exploration sites, according to Macquarie Research. New horizons: A view of Reliance Industries’ refinery at Jamnagar. As refining margins shrink and demand for petrochemical products declines, natural gas may be the largest revenue source for the company. AFP That view, contained in a December report by Macquarie, is echoed by sector analysts and RIL’s minority partners in the blocks such as Hardy Oil and Gas Plc. and Niko Resources Ltd.“Our forensics suggest that RIL has at least five other basins that could replicate KG-D6,” Macquarie analysts Jal Irani and Scott Weaver wrote. KG-D6 refers to the company’s proven reserves in the D6 block of the KG basin in the Bay of Bengal.These blocks, however, are currently in various stages of exploration or development. Experts have cautioned that while these are “promising” and could boost RIL’s financials, a clearer picture will emerge after more wells are drilled. RIL is the principal operator in these blocks. It also has the largest acreage on this coast and declared 41 discoveries so far.The MN-D4 block in the Mahanadi basin, KG-D9 and KG-D3 in the KG basin and the CY-D5 in the Cauvery basin are being tipped as the next big sources of gas with expected reserves of about 70 trillion cubic ft (tcf), according to projections. Additionally, the Mahanadi block NEC-25 is expected to hold about 8.3tcf, while KG-D4 could potentially be the largest oil find off the eastern coast, likely bigger than the D6 block.RIL did not respond to an emailed questionnaire.As refining margins shrink and demand for petrochemical products declines, natural gas from KG-D6 is expected to be the largest revenue source for the Mukesh Ambani-owned company. In such as scenario, a few assets such as KG-D6 could only help RIL, but experts are curbing their enthusiasm until drilling begins.That caution stems from the fact that converting prospects won’t be easy. “People are not giving too much attention to these right now. They are giving extant valuation only to revenue streams with clear-cut visibility like KG-D6,” said a sector analyst with a domestic brokerage, adding that RIL could face a shortage of deep-sea rigs as well as a funding crunch to develop these blocks. Currently, all its deep-sea rigs and crew are deployed in KG-D6.Another hitch is that the natural gas market in India is still nascent. “Once KG-D6 gas comes out and gas market begins to develop in India, we will have a better understanding of how significant these discoveries are and how they should be valued,” said an analyst with a foreign brokerage, who did not want to be identified as he is not allowed to speak to the media.Gas from D6 could go up to 80 million standard cu. m a day (mscmd) at its peak, and is valued at $27-30 billion (Rs1.31-1.46 trillion). Of this, $6 billion could accrue to RIL shareholders, the same analyst said.However, production and sale from KG-D6 depends on the outcome of a lawsuit being heard in the Bombay high court, where Reliance Natural Resources Ltd, owned by estranged brother Anil Ambani, is claiming 28mscmd of gas at a cheaper rate for 17 years than what RIL has proposed.The D6 block has 40tcf of in-place reserves, Edward S. Sampson, chief executive of Niko Resources, had told analysts in October. Niko has a 10% stake in this block and 15% in MN-D4. A Macquarie report dated 17 September 2007 had said that MN-D4 “may even dwarf KG-D6”. Niko did not respond to a questionnaire emailed on Monday.Hardy Oil and Gas, a 10% partner of RIL for KG-D9 and KG-D3, is also optimistic about the new sites. In an April presentation to investors, the firm said KG-D9 could have as much as 45tcf of gas in a “best estimate” scenario, with a 15% chance of success.

The Elvis Presley-Captain Marvel, Jr., Meme

星期三, 01月 7th, 2009

If you’ve Googled the names “Elvis Presley” and “Captain Marvel, Jr.” together–and who am I to say how you should spend your time?–you’ve found links to hundreds of webpages repeating the belief that Presley modeled his appearance on that young superhero. The most thorough discussion I’ve seen is this four-part series at Dial B for Blog.However, in all those words about Presley and the Shazam! comics, there’s no real evidence of a connection between him and Captain Marvel, Jr. Instead, Dial B writer Robby Reed repeats the conclusions of Elaine Dundy’s book, Elvis and Gladys (1985). Among Presley biographies, Dundy’s is considered one of the more insightful and less exploitative, though still a long way from Peter Guralnick’s Last Train to Memphis.Dundy refers to Captain Marvel, Jr., a lot in her book. Chapter 1 is named after the character. And she makes statements like these: “Elvis was already immersed in the adventures of the Lone Ranger, Hopalong Cassidy, Tarzan, Batman, and Superman when his secret life suddenly took a dramatic new turn. He discovered Freddy Freeman in the comic book series Captain Marvel’s Adventures. There, on page 267, young Freddy made his entrance–and very nearly his exit–fishing off a boat with his grandpa…” [page 3] “Freddy/Marvel, Jr.,…has been obviously and sensitively copied from a most appealing adolescent life-model. He looks in fact exactly like Elvis, from adolescence to the end of his life, strove to make himself look.” [5] “But the Captain Marvel series, and in particular, Captain Marvel, Jr., was Elvis’ unquestioned favorite. Adding greatly to the popularity of the series were the characters that derived and that sprang up from the stories. . . . Elvis’ twin-fusion with Freddy/Captain Marvel, Jr., was total and it was from reading his adventures that the young Elvis secretly began to create himself.” [69] “It was Captain Marvel, Jr., who styled Elvis’ glistening hair, side-parted with the forelock falling over his brow, the sideburns, the hair growing down his neck. Much later would come Elvis’ Captain Marvel, Jr., cape and lightning bolt emblems on the TCB (Taking Care of Business) and TLC (Tender Loving Care) jewelry he would give to his special friends.” [69-70] But Dundy never cites any interviews or documents as evidence for that connection. She interviewed two of Presley’s childhood friends–Wayne Earnest [cited on page 3] and Harold Lloyd [68]–who testified to his love for comic books. But neither of them said anything about Presley’s particular fondness for Captain Marvel, Jr.Dundy quotes Presley’s own words, from a 1970s interview: “I was the hero of every comic book I ever read.” [68] He said something similar in a 1970 acceptance speech, quoted at the official Graceland site: “When I was a child, ladies and gentlemen, I was a dreamer. I read comic books, and I was the hero of the comic book.” But those statements don’t single out the hero nicknamed Junior. In fact, they imply that Presley had no special favorite.Lloyd recalled Presley preserving his comic books with unusual care for the 1940s (well before bags and boards). But Dundy doesn’t point to any Captain Marvel magazines surviving in his estate. Yes, there are such comics now on display in some museums devoted to him, but they’ve been put there since Dundy’s book was published.TOMORROW: So what evidence led Dundy to focus on Captain Marvel, Jr.?